Election Post-Mortem
A year ago today, if you’d asked me what would happen in the 2004 Presidential election, I’d have said something like this: “The Democrat should be able to win every state Gore won in 2000 and add New Hampshire. Then it’s a matter of winning Ohio or Florida - probably Ohio, because I don’t trust Jeb.”
That prediction would have been correct in 47 out of the 50 states. Not because I’m a precognitive political genius, but because that’s how predictable this election was. Only about eleven states were remotely in question, and most people agreed Ohio and Florida would decide it. So neither side did much better or much worse than anyone expected them to. Bush won, but it was never a sure thing.
John Kerry’s campaign wasn’t flawless, but in the end, I was proud to support him. I’m proud of his New Hampshire victory and my miniscule role in it. America is lucky to have such a dedicated public servant.
Democrats are pondering changes in strategy, and I have no good ideas to offer, other than that they embrace all the policies I favor. One fact bears keeping in mind, however: despite their victories, Republicans aren’t in a much better electoral position. 51-48 isn’t that comfortable a margin of victory. Both sides are looking for a way to break this stalemate.
There’s a faint chance, I suppose, that Bush’s second term will finally see some results on fiscal conservatism and free trade. I doubt it, but that’s my glimmer of hope for the next four years.