October Surprise
There’s a theory among Democrats that sometime shortly before the election, the Bush Administration will capture Osama bin Laden. Kevin Drum lists some other possibilities.
Anyone who truly believes that the Bush administration is planning such a maneuver stands to make some serious money on Tradesports. “OSAMA.CAPTURE.OCT04″ is for sale at 11.0, which means that after adjusting for the transaction costs, one could turn an investment of $11.80 into $99.20. Multiply that by how much you’re willing to bet, and you’ve got easy money - IF you truly believe what you’re saying.
The low share price indicates that most of the people making this prediction are unwilling to “put their money where their mouths are.”