There's a theory among Democrats that sometime shortly before the election, the Bush Administration will capture Osama bin Laden. Kevin Drum lists some other possibilities.
Anyone who truly believes that the Bush administration is planning such a maneuver stands to make some serious money on Tradesports. "OSAMA.CAPTURE.OCT04" is for sale at 11.0, which means that after adjusting for the transaction costs, one could turn an investment of $11.80 into $99.20. Multiply that by how much you're willing to bet, and you've got easy money - IF you truly believe what you're saying.
The low share price indicates that most of the people making this prediction are unwilling to "put their money where their mouths are."
Posted by digamma at September 28, 2004 06:49 PM | TrackBackA price of 11.0 means that without transaction costs, you make 89:11, or about 8:1. You're off by a factor of 10.
Posted by: Patri Friedman at October 1, 2004 05:55 PMD'oh. I knew that. Fixed.
Posted by: digamma at October 1, 2004 08:09 PMDo you hate it as much as I do when you find yourself agreeing with anything Christopher Hitchens says?
http://slate.msn.com/id/2107193/
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