Thanks to Answer Guy for pointing out that my electoral calculations were full of crap. The Gore states from 2000 have lost seven electors to the Bush states. So the Gore states plus New Hampshire are only worth 264 electors, not enough to win.
As it happens, those are the exact 264 electors that today's prediction from electoral-vote.com shows Kerry winning. It also shows Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, and Florida as tied, leaving Bush with only 222 electors. Bush has massively increased his lead in Ohio.
So a Kerry win is not going to be nearly as easy as I'd thought. Paging Dr. Kucinich to resuscitate Ohio seems far-fetched at this point, so he's got to win Florida, Missouri, Colorado, or both Nevada and the Colorado ballot initiative that would give him a proportion of the state's electors (and probably lead to a horrific legal battle.)
Florida? Missouri? Colorado? Ohio? Arizona? I don't know which of these states scares me the least.
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